On 10/30/10 12:12 PM, carole wrote:
wrote in message ...
On 10/30/10 8:27 AM, carole wrote:
"Bob Officer"-*-*.@.*-*- wrote in message news On Fri, 29 Oct 2010 20:44:53 +1100, in misc.health.alternative,
wrote:


wrote in message 4.39...
wrote in
d.com:

There is no correlation between autism and increase in vaccinations.
You might just as well claim that there is a correlation between
increased rate of ice-cream sales and deaths by drowning in the
Scandinavian countries.

There is an increase in autism.
There is an increase in vaccination.
Therefore a correlation.

Your logic is faulty.

There is an increase of ice-cream sales in Scandinavian countries.
There is an increase of deaths by drowning deaths in Scandinavian
countries.
No correlation.

My understanding of the word "correlation" is two things that happen in tandem or simultaneously.
They don't have to prove that they are connected, merely that they happen at the same rate.

Close. They must have correspondence and show cause and effect and
they have to somehow be coupled to show causality. which it doesn't.

Not necessarily show cause and effect, only that they move in the same direction together.

Yeah, so what? The amount of oil burned for energy moves in the same direction, with the rates of diagnosed autism, too.

So do you think its a likely cause of autism?
If not, why not?

Do you think its possible that vaccines cause autism?
If not why not?

There is no plausible mechanism that would explain how autism might be
caused by vaccines. And all the good research done to day indicates that
autism is not caused by any vaccine.

If somebody says there is a correlation between the amount of something and the incidence of another thing, it is said to show a
correlation.

Yeah, so what? It doesn't mean causation.

Doesn't prove there is causal effect necessarily, but you'd look for one.

Yeah, and a causal role for vaccines in autism has been looked for. And one has not been found. Another way to show that vaccines
cause autism would be a mechanism. Not one viable mechanism has been found. There is also evidence that indicates that autism is
caused by other things, like genetics and development.


So what it the reason for the increase in autism?

Better diagnosis is the main reason why so many more kids are diagnosed
with autism. For example, in the LA area, a study found that the higher
the education level of the parents, the more likely they were to have
their kids diagnosed with autism. Most likely, with their better
education, they were able to get an accurate diagnosis for the problems
their kids were having. In addition, the diagnostic criteria for autism
spectrum diseases changed, resulting in more people diagnosed.

Jeff