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The decline of rape
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The decline of rape
Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? On Feb 20, 10:12 pm, "0:-" wrote: The decline of rape What the sharp decline in reported sexual assaults reveals about today's youth. By Mike Males, MIKE MALES is senior researcher at the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice in San Francisco. E-mail: . Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007 NEWS FEATURES, political commentaries and institutional reports incessantly berate the sexual excesses of modern teenagers. "Reports of young studs 'playing rape' ... during recess, of 9-year-old sexual harassers and fifth-grade rapists and sodomists have become too common to pass off as simply anomalous," wrote conservative Manhattan Institute researcher Kay Hymowitz. The progressive Media Education Foundation, which distributes educational videos, warned in "Deadly Persuasion" of "widespread and increasing violence against women" by young men incited by brutal, misogynist popular culture and corporate advertising. Evidence supporting the claims of rising teenage sexual violence is seldom offered. Commentators instead ask, given today's salacious ads, slutty preteen styles, women-hating rap lyrics, MySpace.com, designer porn and binge-drinking orgies, how could young people not be "hooking up" more randomly, more violently and younger? Yet crime reports, victimization surveys and public health measures consistently reveal something else: large declines in the percentages of young women reporting violence against them, especially sexual attacks, and of young men committing rape and other violent offenses. The U.S. Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey (considered our best measure of crime because its anonymous surveys capture offenses not reported to police) reports that rape has been falling dramatically for decades. The first survey, in 1973, estimated that 105,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped that year. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the survey was expanded to include sexual assault and attempted or threatened offenses. Even so, the latest survey (in a young female population 1 million larger than in 1973) reported that 30,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped and 60,000 were victims of attempted rape or real or attempted sexual offenses (including verbal threats) in 2005. The crime surveys further indicate that the decline in sexual violence is greater among younger females than older women. In the last dozen years, they found that sexual victimization rates among girls ages 12 to 19 fell by 78% and among women ages 20 to 24 by 70%, nearly double the drop among women older than 25. The decrease in violence is reflected in big drops in teenage rape arrests. Led by decreases of 90% in San Francisco, 85% in Orange, Riverside and Ventura counties, and 80% in Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Sacramento counties, California's teen rape-arrest rate fell by 70% over the last three decades. Fewer teens were arrested for rape in 2005 (236) than in 1957 (331), the first year statistics were reported, in a teenage population just one-third today's. But can we trust these statistics? Rape is an underreported crime: Only four in 10 victims told the National Crime Victimization Survey that they had reported their rapes to police. But rape is less hidden than before. Thanks to feminist campaigns, laws have been extended to criminalize nonconsensual sex with intoxicated, disabled, same-sex and acquaintance victims and other offenses that narrower rape laws excluded. All this makes the recent declines in teenage sexual violence even more impressive. Why has rape and violence against women, particularly younger women, declined so dramatically over the last generation? Little research exists on this question, and tentative explanations - from tougher sentencing of violent offenders to pornography's effects in sublimating violence - are not persuasive. The three-decade decline in teenage and young-adult rape accompanies huge drops in all crimes - murder, assault, drug abuse and property - committed by youth. And get-tough policies designed to imprison more teenagers don't seem to be a factor either. Just-released California Division of Juvenile Justice figures show that fewer youths are locked up today than in 1959, when numbers were first reported. The most likely explanation involves impressive generational developments. In 1970, women made up one-third of all college students (versus 57% today), earned about one-fourth of all young-adult income (versus nearly half today) and made up small fractions of doctors and lawyers (versus majorities of new entrants into these fields now). Women's rapidly rising status and economic independence in the larger society fostered new attitudes and laws that rejected violence against women. That younger people growing up in this environment of greater gender equality should show the biggest decreases in rape, while older generations lag behind, is consistent with this explanation. The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older. Ultimately, however, sexual violence remains a serious danger. That is the best reason for rigorously scrutinizing its real patterns and trends (rather than taking tiresome potshots at "young people" and "popular culture") to learn how to further reduce it. |
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The decline of rape
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:
Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane On Feb 20, 10:12 pm, "0:-" wrote: The decline of rape What the sharp decline in reported sexual assaults reveals about today's youth. By Mike Males, MIKE MALES is senior researcher at the Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice in San Francisco. E-mail: . Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007 NEWS FEATURES, political commentaries and institutional reports incessantly berate the sexual excesses of modern teenagers. "Reports of young studs 'playing rape' ... during recess, of 9-year-old sexual harassers and fifth-grade rapists and sodomists have become too common to pass off as simply anomalous," wrote conservative Manhattan Institute researcher Kay Hymowitz. The progressive Media Education Foundation, which distributes educational videos, warned in "Deadly Persuasion" of "widespread and increasing violence against women" by young men incited by brutal, misogynist popular culture and corporate advertising. Evidence supporting the claims of rising teenage sexual violence is seldom offered. Commentators instead ask, given today's salacious ads, slutty preteen styles, women-hating rap lyrics, MySpace.com, designer porn and binge-drinking orgies, how could young people not be "hooking up" more randomly, more violently and younger? Yet crime reports, victimization surveys and public health measures consistently reveal something else: large declines in the percentages of young women reporting violence against them, especially sexual attacks, and of young men committing rape and other violent offenses. The U.S. Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey (considered our best measure of crime because its anonymous surveys capture offenses not reported to police) reports that rape has been falling dramatically for decades. The first survey, in 1973, estimated that 105,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped that year. In the 1980s and early 1990s, the survey was expanded to include sexual assault and attempted or threatened offenses. Even so, the latest survey (in a young female population 1 million larger than in 1973) reported that 30,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped and 60,000 were victims of attempted rape or real or attempted sexual offenses (including verbal threats) in 2005. The crime surveys further indicate that the decline in sexual violence is greater among younger females than older women. In the last dozen years, they found that sexual victimization rates among girls ages 12 to 19 fell by 78% and among women ages 20 to 24 by 70%, nearly double the drop among women older than 25. The decrease in violence is reflected in big drops in teenage rape arrests. Led by decreases of 90% in San Francisco, 85% in Orange, Riverside and Ventura counties, and 80% in Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Sacramento counties, California's teen rape-arrest rate fell by 70% over the last three decades. Fewer teens were arrested for rape in 2005 (236) than in 1957 (331), the first year statistics were reported, in a teenage population just one-third today's. But can we trust these statistics? Rape is an underreported crime: Only four in 10 victims told the National Crime Victimization Survey that they had reported their rapes to police. But rape is less hidden than before. Thanks to feminist campaigns, laws have been extended to criminalize nonconsensual sex with intoxicated, disabled, same-sex and acquaintance victims and other offenses that narrower rape laws excluded. All this makes the recent declines in teenage sexual violence even more impressive. Why has rape and violence against women, particularly younger women, declined so dramatically over the last generation? Little research exists on this question, and tentative explanations - from tougher sentencing of violent offenders to pornography's effects in sublimating violence - are not persuasive. The three-decade decline in teenage and young-adult rape accompanies huge drops in all crimes - murder, assault, drug abuse and property - committed by youth. And get-tough policies designed to imprison more teenagers don't seem to be a factor either. Just-released California Division of Juvenile Justice figures show that fewer youths are locked up today than in 1959, when numbers were first reported. The most likely explanation involves impressive generational developments. In 1970, women made up one-third of all college students (versus 57% today), earned about one-fourth of all young-adult income (versus nearly half today) and made up small fractions of doctors and lawyers (versus majorities of new entrants into these fields now). Women's rapidly rising status and economic independence in the larger society fostered new attitudes and laws that rejected violence against women. That younger people growing up in this environment of greater gender equality should show the biggest decreases in rape, while older generations lag behind, is consistent with this explanation. The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older. Ultimately, however, sexual violence remains a serious danger. That is the best reason for rigorously scrutinizing its real patterns and trends (rather than taking tiresome potshots at "young people" and "popular culture") to learn how to further reduce it. |
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The decline of rape
0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote: Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. Correlation does not imply causation.. Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly. It is equally valid to say: The less corporal punishment the less youth crime The more internet porn the less youth crime The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime The higher the median family income the less youth crime The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
#5
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The decline of rape
Hahaha! Is Kane still claimg the decline of crime was due to the decline
in spanking??? What about the crime rates during the mid '90's, Kane? Doan On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, David J. Hughes wrote: 0:-] wrote: On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote: Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. Correlation does not imply causation.. Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly. It is equally valid to say: The less corporal punishment the less youth crime The more internet porn the less youth crime The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime The higher the median family income the less youth crime The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
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The decline of rape
On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 16:40:13 -0800, Doan wrote:
Hahaha! Is Kane still claimg the decline of crime was due to the decline in spanking??? What about the crime rates during the mid '90's, Kane? That's when adults that were spanked more as children were becoming teens and young adults. And other factors were coming up as well. Was it true for youth? Doan On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, David J. Hughes wrote: 0:-] wrote: On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote: Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. Correlation does not imply causation.. Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly. It is equally valid to say: The less corporal punishment the less youth crime The more internet porn the less youth crime The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime The higher the median family income the less youth crime The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
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The decline of rape
On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 18:32:33 -0600, "David J. Hughes"
wrote: 0:-] wrote: On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote: Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. Correlation does not imply causation.. Oddly you are wrong. In fact, correlation is one of the contributing parts of findings of causation, but this is a popular comment to make, and you made it. Correlations, statistically examined reach the point of being accepted as cause in many instances. Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly. It is equally valid to say: No, actually it's not. There must be some logical reasonable connections or connection. The less corporal punishment the less youth crime Violent crime, and other crime, has been causaly linked to childhood "trauma." Trauma is what cp is about, and it's intent. The more internet porn the less youth crime The might actually be a connection. It should be examined. The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime Nope. This one has not been examined. Nice try though. The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime RIDICULOUS. The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime The higher the median family income the less youth crime The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime All ridiculous, because there is no logical connection by correlation. You must show a track of violence to crime. Spanking is a violent act,and even the users would agree to that, but fight the use of the language. The point of CP is to cause PAIN. Causing pain is violent. The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane You are to be commended. You did a great job, repeating like a parrot, the claim of "correlation is not causation." Problem is correlation is a very useful tool, IF it's used correctly. Thanks for bringing this up. I've said it before, though, and I will again. Kane ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
#8
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The decline of rape
0:-] wrote:
On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 18:32:33 -0600, "David J. Hughes" wrote: 0:-] wrote: On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote: Is this a SPANKING issue? Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ??? Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor, with less of it going on. And: "The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years, rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15, much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older." The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was popular to claim it in ancient Rome. The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg. Correlation does not imply causation.. Oddly you are wrong. In fact, correlation is one of the contributing parts of findings of causation, but this is a popular comment to make, and you made it. The statement "correlation does not imply causation" is inarguably true. Likewise, the statement "Correlation suggests a link to causation" is equally true. You stated "The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime". This is true, but you statement suggests causation, without support. Had you stated "There is good evidence that the less corporal punishment the less youth crime", particularly with citations of the evidence, I would have had no reason to post. I intentionally used a mixture of possible, arguable and ridiculous true correllations to point out the validity of the the statement "Correlation does not imply causation." Correlations, statistically examined reach the point of being accepted as cause in many instances. "Lies, damned lies and statistics" g. Statistical evidence can support a hypothesis, but can never prove it. At best, it can support the statement "this may be true by the best evidence we have avaialble at this time." Note, please, that my disagreement is not with your position, but rather with how you presented your position. Anytime anyone presents anything as the absolute TRUTH, I feel the need to put one hand on my wallet and look for the nearest exit. Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly. It is equally valid to say: No, actually it's not. There must be some logical reasonable connections or connection. The less corporal punishment the less youth crime Violent crime, and other crime, has been causaly linked to childhood "trauma." Trauma is what cp is about, and it's intent. The more internet porn the less youth crime The might actually be a connection. It should be examined. The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime Nope. This one has not been examined. Nice try though. This one could be argued on the structure of the studies conducted. "Self fulfilling prophecies" are one of the major stumbling blocks in any such study. The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime RIDICULOUS. Almost certainly. The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime Equally ridiculous as the previous. The higher the median family income the less youth crime The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime All ridiculous, because there is no logical connection by correlation. Both these last two are arguable, particularly since you were using sex crimes as the primary focus of your post. Logical connections are the reduction in financial and sexual needs to prompt criminal action. You must show a track of violence to crime. Nonsense. Criminal behavior exists in persons who have never been the victim of violence, and victims of the most horrific violence have become upright, law abiding individuals. The violence/crime connection is a factor, but not an absolute. Spanking is a violent act,and even the users would agree to that, but fight the use of the language. The point of CP is to cause PAIN. Causing pain is violent. Causing injury MAY be violent. Pain is frequently an unfortunate side effect of beneficial behavior. Causing pain is not necessarily violent. Deflowering one's virgin wife in the marriage bed can very painful, but that is not the intent. Please examine your language use for clarity. Emotionally laden terms tend to hamper meaningful discussions. The trends have followed each other very closely. It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well. It no longer does. Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose all your biases? R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R .... Kane You are to be commended. You did a great job, repeating like a parrot, the claim of "correlation is not causation." "Correlation does not imply causation" is not the same as "correlation is not causation." If you must parrot, please do so correctly. G Problem is correlation is a very useful tool, IF it's used correctly. Agreed. Thanks for bringing this up. I've said it before, though, and I will again. Kane ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- ----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==---- http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups ----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =---- |
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