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Swine flu: the pandemic that ended with a whimper



 
 
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Old December 8th 09, 05:55 PM posted to misc.health.alternative,misc.kids.health,sci.med
john[_5_]
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Default Swine flu: the pandemic that ended with a whimper

Swine flu: the pandemic that ended with a whimper
8 December 2009
By Jeremy Laurance

So that's it. The swine flu pandemic of 2009 is over. The World Health
Organisation (WHO) has acknowledged that the pandemic "may have peaked in
parts of the northern hemisphere". In the UK, cases have been declining for
four weeks and are now only just above baseline levels. Swine flu is not
going to return this side of Christmas.

Can we relax? Not yet. Chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson says there
could be another peak in January or February and, more worrying, the virus
could mutate.

But suppose it does not? Will the WHO have to redefine the term "pandemic
virus"? The only pandemic we have seen so far is the one at the end of the
virologists' microscopes. OK, so it is a completely new flu virus of a kind
never seen before - hence its title "Novel H1N1 influenza". But there has
been no "pandemic", in any clinically relevant sense of the term, anywhere
in the world since swine flu first broke out in Mexico last April.

Virologically speaking, swine flu may meet the criteria for a pandemic. It
has targeted younger people rather than older and we have never had flu in
summer before. But flu is different every year.

In June, the WHO announced a Level 6 global alert - the highest - for the
first time in 40 years. It was intended to help the world prepare for an
imminent lethal viral attack not seen in decades and required the
mobilisation of immense resources. It hasn't happened. What began with a
thunderclap is ending - for this year at least - with a whimper.

True, if the virus does mutate it could cause mayhem on a scale not yet
seen. But the risk is reducing as the vaccine is rolled out - almost two
million have already had the jab in the UK and millions more will get it in
the next couple of months. The existing vaccine should provide some cross
protection even against a mutated virus.

If we have seen the worst of the "pandemic", we can all breathe a sigh of
relief. But it will leave the virologists with some tough questions to
answer. Among them is this: how was it that a wholly "novel" virus turned
out on closer inspection not to be so novel at all? We knew it was mild from
the beginning but we thought that because it was novel it would spread
widely and, even though mild, kill a lot of people by virtue of the sheer
numbers infected.

That has not happened. Estimates of the population potentially infected
have been reduced from 30 per cent to 10 per cent - the same as for seasonal
flu. It has emerged that people aged over 50 have some immunity because,
although the virus itself is novel, proteins on its surface are similar in
some respects to those on H1N1 viruses circulating up to the 1960s.

If it turns out that we have used a sledgehammer to crack a nut, my
question is this: how did the virologists get the scale of the threat so
wrong?


  #2  
Old December 9th 09, 01:58 AM posted to misc.health.alternative,misc.kids.health,sci.med
dr_jeff
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Posts: 293
Default Swine flu: the pandemic that ended with a whimper

john wrote:
Swine flu: the pandemic that ended with a whimper
8 December 2009
By Jeremy Laurance

So that's it. The swine flu pandemic of 2009 is over. The World Health
Organisation (WHO) has acknowledged that the pandemic "may have peaked in
parts of the northern hemisphere".


So? Peaked is not the same as over. It is still going on.\
 




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