Bird flu: The Ultimate Chicken Joke

http://www.countercurrents.org/us-marshall110206.htm

The Ultimate Chicken Joke
By Lucinda Marshall
11 February, 2006
Countercurrents.org
Late last year, Senator Bill Frist told the National Press Club that,
according to a study by the Congressional Budget Office, bird flu could cost
the United States $675 billion in economic damage. This count and amount
assumes that 30% of the nation will be stricken by a disease that has thus
far proved lethal to less than 100 people worldwide. In such a scenario, 90
million Americans could be sickened and two million would die. The report
states however that the chances of a flu pandemic occurring are less than
one third of one percent.
Armed with this alarming scenario, President Bush recently signed a bill
allocating $3.8 billion in funds to prepare for bird flu while also giving
pharmaceutical companies broad liability protection for drugs produced to
combat a pandemic. While a compensation plan for patients injured by
pandemic vaccines was created, no money allotted for the program.
A significant portion of the preparation funds will be spent stockpiling
Tamiflu, a drug developed by Gilead Sciences, a company in which Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has a significant financial stake. Curiously, the
World Health Organization has stated that Tamiflu has not been particularly
successful in treating humans who have contracted bird flu but nonetheless
continues to recommend its use despite the drug's unproven efficacy. The
value of Tamiflu in treating bird flu is indeed dubious, except of course to
its investors. The British medical journal Lancet recently published a
report of a study that found no "credible evidence" that the drug is
effective against the virus.
And in Vietnam, a country hard hit by bird flu, a doctor treating patients
with bird flu has also reported that Tamiflu had no effect on patients she
was treating. The doctor, Dr. Nguyen Tuong Van of the Centre for Tropical
Diseases in Hanoi, does not see Tamiflu (which was developed to fight Type A
flu, not the H5N1 virus) as a useful tool for fighting avian flu.
Even though Tamiflu may not be useful in treating bird flu, both the World
Health Organization and the drug's primary manufacturer, Roche Holding AG,
continue to advise stockpiling the drug, which only has a shelf life of only
5 years. As of last October, there were enough doses of Tamiflu (which
retails for $91.99 for ten pills at my local pharmacy) available in the
U.S.to treat 4.3 million people.
A draft of a plan by the Bush administration notes that tens of millions
of doses would be needed, far more than can be currently manufactured. More
disturbingly, many private corporations, particularly those who do business
in Southeast Asia are considering stockpiling the drug for use by employees,
leading to serious questions regarding the vested interests of these
companies versus the public good should a pandemic actually occur.
The United States has also asked two pharmaceutical companies to start
producing and stockpiling bird flu vaccines. The vaccine is now being tested
on humans to find out at what dosage if any it is actually effective; the
expectation is that it will require six times the dosage of normal flu
shots.
The vaccine is based on a virus sample from one of the few people to have
died from the bird flu in its present form. Unfortunately, there is no way
to know whether a vaccine based on the current makeup of the virus will be
effective against other permutations of bird flu.
Even if the vaccine does turn out to be effective, it would take years for
to manufacture adequate amounts of the vaccine, given the current
manufacturing capacities. And no one knows for just how long such a vaccine
would remain potent, so there is the very real possibility that the
stockpiled vaccine would have to be discarded before an actual pandemic
occurred.
Despite all of the media attention and money being spent, there is
significant disagreement within the scientific and medical community as to
the likelihood of a bird flu pandemic. According to Ian Lipkin of Columbia
University's School of Public Health, it would take numerous mutations for
the genome of this virus to become likely to transmit from human to human.
And as one public health doctor pointed out, many common flu precautions
such as washing hands and not going to work when you are sick could blunt
the impact of any kind of flu epidemic.
It is truly disturbing that there is so much hype over an uncertain
pandemic versus our systemic ignoring of existing pandemics that we actually
have the ways and means to treat and in many cases, eradicate. According to
The Centers for Disease Control and the World Health Organization,
approximately half of all deaths caused by infectious diseases each year can
be attributed to AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis which together cause 300
million illnesses and more than five million deaths. Significantly, the
comprehensive list of such diseases does not include West Nile Virus or
Ebola, both of which have gotten much press coverage, but which, like avian
flu, have actually killed a very small number of people.
It is of course possible for there to be a bird flu pandemic with very
serious consequences. But spending billions of dollars on unproven vaccines
and treatments seems of little value, particularly when many more lives
would be saved by spending the same money on available, effective treatments
for the ongoing existing pandemics that already plague our planet. But in
the spirit of SARS and Anthrax, a little panic goes a long way in instilling
fear and feeding the corporate coffers.
Feeling sick yet?

#####
This article was originally publishe in Zmag
Lucinda Marshall is a feminist artist, writer and activist. She is the
Founder of the Feminist Peace Network, www.feministpeacenetwork.org. Her
work has been published in numerous publications in the U.S. and abroad
including, Awakened Woman, Alternet, Dissident Voice, Off Our Backs, The
Progressive, Rain and Thunder, Z , Common Dreams and Information
Clearinghouse.

Per http://www.countercurrents.org/us-marshall110206.htm

...assumes that 30% of the nation will be stricken by a disease that has thus
far proved lethal to less than 100 people worldwide.

If that's true, it's a really poor assumption. OTOH, I'd think it's more
likely that they are talking a different disease: the one that will evolve
from the one described and be efficiently transmitted from person-to-person.

One should note that the current version of H5N1 has proven lethal to over
50% of the people who have been confirmed to have been infected with it.
The big question in my mind is how much of that lethality will be preserved in
the human-to-human disease that evolves from it.

We might get lucky... we might not. But a populace with zero residual immunity
will certainly have a rather high rate of infection by whatever evolves.


The report states however that the chances of a flu pandemic occurring are less than
one third of one percent.

Haven't read the report, but that is at odds with everything else I've read.
Take a look at WHO's white papers. Also, every expert I've heard interviewed
has said in so many words that it's not "If", it's simply "When".


The 1918 pandemic encircled the globe in a matter of months - and that was
before air travel was commonplace. With this one, I'd bet on days or weeks.
The zinger is that the current lead time for vaccine production is many months
and, as noted in the report quoted, TamiFlu is by no means a sure cure.

--
PeteCresswell

john-the DUMB CLUCK- wrote:

The Ultimate Chicken Joke

"john" wrote in message
...
http://www.countercurrents.org/us-marshall110206.htm

The Ultimate Chicken Joke
By Lucinda Marshall
11 February, 2006
Countercurrents.org
Late last year, Senator Bill Frist told the National Press Club that,
according to a study by the Congressional Budget Office, bird flu could
cost the United States $675 billion in economic damage. This count and
amount assumes that 30% of the nation will be stricken by a disease that
has thus far proved lethal to less than 100 people worldwide. In such a
scenario, 90 million Americans could be sickened and two million would
die. The report states however that the chances of a flu pandemic
occurring are less than one third of one percent.

He never said that. See the transcript at:

http://frist.senate.gov/index.cfm?Fu...h=12&Year=2005



Armed with this alarming scenario, President Bush recently signed a bill
allocating $3.8 billion in funds to prepare for bird flu while also giving
pharmaceutical companies broad liability protection for drugs produced to
combat a pandemic. While a compensation plan for patients injured by
pandemic vaccines was created, no money allotted for the program.
A significant portion of the preparation funds will be spent stockpiling
Tamiflu, a drug developed by Gilead Sciences, a company in which Secretary
of Defense Donald Rumsfeld has a significant financial stake. Curiously,
the World Health Organization has stated that Tamiflu has not been
particularly successful in treating humans who have contracted bird flu
but nonetheless continues to recommend its use despite the drug's unproven
efficacy. The value of Tamiflu in treating bird flu is indeed dubious,
except of course to its investors. The British medical journal Lancet
recently published a report of a study that found no "credible evidence"
that the drug is effective against the virus.

It may be effective prophylactically. As such it would be useful for
protecting front-line healthcare workers.


And in Vietnam, a country hard hit by bird flu, a doctor treating
patients with bird flu has also reported that Tamiflu had no effect on
patients she was treating. The doctor, Dr. Nguyen Tuong Van of the Centre
for Tropical Diseases in Hanoi, does not see Tamiflu (which was developed
to fight Type A flu, not the H5N1 virus)


H5N1 is a type A influenza. Type B's are not even classified by their
hemagglutinin and neuraminidase components.



as a useful tool for fighting avian flu.
Even though Tamiflu may not be useful in treating bird flu, both the
World Health Organization and the drug's primary manufacturer, Roche
Holding AG, continue to advise stockpiling the drug, which only has a
shelf life of only 5 years. As of last October, there were enough doses of
Tamiflu (which retails for $91.99 for ten pills at my local pharmacy)
available in the U.S.to treat 4.3 million people.
A draft of a plan by the Bush administration notes that tens of millions
of doses would be needed, far more than can be currently manufactured.
More disturbingly, many private corporations, particularly those who do
business in Southeast Asia are considering stockpiling the drug for use by
employees, leading to serious questions regarding the vested interests of
these companies versus the public good should a pandemic actually occur.
The United States has also asked two pharmaceutical companies to start
producing and stockpiling bird flu vaccines. The vaccine is now being
tested on humans to find out at what dosage if any it is actually
effective; the expectation is that it will require six times the dosage of
normal flu shots.

So where did you get that datum? It's not in Frist's speech.



The vaccine is based on a virus sample from one of the few people to have
died from the bird flu in its present form. Unfortunately, there is no way
to know whether a vaccine based on the current makeup of the virus will be
effective against other permutations of bird flu.
Even if the vaccine does turn out to be effective, it would take years
for to manufacture adequate amounts of the vaccine, given the current
manufacturing capacities.

No, about a year. We do need to ramp up manufacturing capacity, though, and
provide incentives for manufacturing vaccine in the U.S. As Frist points
out, there are only five manufacturers now, and only one in the U.S.

And no one knows for just how long such a vaccine would remain potent, so
there is the very real possibility that the stockpiled vaccine would have
to be discarded before an actual pandemic occurred.

Properly stored, the shelf life of flu vaccine is about six years. There's
no reason to believe that the H5N1 variety would prove any different.



Despite all of the media attention and money being spent, there is
significant disagreement within the scientific and medical community as to
the likelihood of a bird flu pandemic. According to Ian Lipkin of Columbia
University's School of Public Health, it would take numerous mutations for
the genome of this virus to become likely to transmit from human to human.

It takes ten mutations; seven have already occurred.



And as one public health doctor pointed out, many common flu precautions
such as washing hands and not going to work when you are sick could blunt
the impact of any kind of flu epidemic.
It is truly disturbing that there is so much hype over an uncertain
pandemic versus our systemic ignoring of existing pandemics that we
actually have the ways and means to treat and in many cases, eradicate.
According to The Centers for Disease Control and the World Health
Organization, approximately half of all deaths caused by infectious
diseases each year can be attributed to AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis
which together cause 300 million illnesses and more than five million
deaths. Significantly, the comprehensive list of such diseases does not
include West Nile Virus or Ebola, both of which have gotten much press
coverage, but which, like avian flu, have actually killed a very small
number of people.
It is of course possible for there to be a bird flu pandemic with very
serious consequences. But spending billions of dollars on unproven
vaccines and treatments seems of little value, particularly when many more
lives would be saved by spending the same money on available, effective
treatments for the ongoing existing pandemics that already plague our
planet. But in the spirit of SARS and Anthrax, a little panic goes a long
way in instilling fear and feeding the corporate coffers.

Much of the proposed budget is for the establishment of a more effective,
better coordinated flu surveilance system. This is an essential element in
the plan to blunt, and possibly even prevent an avian flu epidemic. If the
first cases of human-to-human transmissible flu are detected early enough,
the epidemic might possibly be short circuited at the source with
anti-virals and mass vaccination.



Feeling sick yet?

I'm rather sick of seeing articles pooh-poohing the posibility of a flu
pandemic. It's happened before, and it will happen again. It's not if, but
when.
--


--Rich

Recommended websites:

http://www.ratbags.com/rsoles
http://www.acahf.org.au
http://www.quackwatch.org/
http://www.skeptic.com/
http://www.csicop.org/

"Mark Probert" wrote in message
...
john-the DUMB CLUCK- wrote:

The Ultimate Chicken Joke

Please don't insult chickens by associating John with chickens.

Jeff

(PeteCresswell) wrote:

One should note that the current version of H5N1 has proven lethal to over
50% of the people who have been confirmed to have been infected with it.
The big question in my mind is how much of that lethality will be preserved in
the human-to-human disease that evolves from it.

Nah! Irresponsible fear mongering, such as this reply, does nothing
that would create widespread fear and panic. No way would a phobia
about dying from the bird flu cause riots among the general population,
as they trample over other people in the vaccination line.

No way would generalize anxiety about the forth coming legthal bird flu
lower the immunity of the general population, thereby resulting in more
deaths. Are there any Lawyers in the audience? Please take note of
potential targets of lawsuits, against future wrongful death claims.

Don't bet on it Geek! Try reading up on Psychoneuroimmunology.
--
john gohde
http://naturalhealthperspective.com/...dy-effect.html

Mark Probert wrote:

john-the DUMB CLUCK- wrote:

The Ultimate Chicken Joke

I am not going to read any Ultimate Jokes. Monty Python showed me
clearly what would happen if I did.

Jeff wrote:
"Mark Probert" wrote in message
...
john-the DUMB CLUCK- wrote:

The Ultimate Chicken Joke

Please don't insult chickens by associating John with chickens.

I realized my faux pas moments after hitting that send button.

So, instead of a chicken for dinner, I had fish.

I suggest you dont be to blase about it because if you were to have the
misfortune of catching it you can lose your life. The NHS in this
country have no vaccination for it at the moment. Basically until it
arrives, they dont even know how to make it up. Let us hope it doesnt
come here. But be prepared for a rainy day and dont blow your money in
case you need to have a private vaccine.
King George.

Per :
private vaccine

?
--
PeteCresswell