Flu season could be severe this year

Looks like flu prognosticators/vaccine manufacturers might have been off
a little off this year in their guesses as to which strains would be
prevalent. The Pikes Peak region has been hit hard already; ~1/3 of the
kids at a nearby high school were out Monday, most, I suspect, with flu.
(See article at http://gazette.com/display.php?sid=659945). Ski season
really gets into full swing this weekend (thank heavens it's been
snowing heavily at many of the ski areas this week!), so be
prepared/careful if you're headed this way for the holidays. :-)
from www.reutershealth.com; Health eLine, 11/18/03

Flu season could be severe this year

Last Updated: 2003-11-18 8:23:10 -0400 (Reuters Health)

By Megan Rauscher

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - This year's influenza season has started
earlier in the U.S. than it has in the past three years, and the
influenza viruses circulating this year have previously been associated
with more severe disease, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease
Control and Prevention (CDC).

One strain that is circulating is not part of the influenza vaccine
currently being given to prevent influenza.

All this has CDC officials "very concerned," director Dr. Julie
Gerberding said at a press briefing with reporters Monday. "This could
be a worse than usual flu season," she said.

Some parts of the country - particularly Texas and Colorado - are seeing
very high levels of widespread flu infections, according to Gerberding.

This year's influenza vaccine for the Northern Hemisphere will protect
against three strains: H3N2 Panama, H1N1 New Caledonia, and influenza B
Hong Kong.

Early surveillance data suggests that a high proportion of flu this year
is of the H3N2 strain, a type of influenza A. "In some previous
situations, H3N2 strains have been associated with perhaps more severe
disease," Gerberding said.

But the strain that CDC is most concerned about right now is a "drift"
version of H3N2 called the Fijian strain. "It is very similar to H3N2
Panama, it's just drifted a little from the Panama strain," Gerberding
said. "Animal studies suggest that the current vaccine will provide
cross protection against this strain, but we are watching that very
carefully and we will know more as the flu season evolves," she
continued.

"It's a very common thing, as flu strains gradually evolve in people, we
don't always have exactly the same strain in the vaccine that is
circulating in the community and our experience so far historically has
been that whatever the drift is, the vaccine will still provide some
cross protection," Gerberding said.

An estimated 114,000 people are hospitalized with influenza each year
and 36,000 die from influenza-related complications.

"We are still very early in the flu season," Gerberding said, and she
strongly encouraged people to get vaccinated now.

"This is the time for Americans to really step up to the plate and get
vaccinated against influenza, especially because this could be a
worse-than-usual flu season and especially because we have this
particular strain circulating," Gerberding said. "The point is that
people need to get their flu shot."

"JG" wrote in message
t...
Looks like flu prognosticators/vaccine manufacturers might have been off
a little off this year in their guesses as to which strains would be
prevalent. The Pikes Peak region has been hit hard already; ~1/3 of the
kids at a nearby high school were out Monday, most, I suspect, with flu.

Nice shot at the flu manufacturers. However, from another thread:


"Rich Shewmaker" wrote in message
...

No, the epidemiologists did not guess wrong, so wipe that sneer off your
face. The strains included in this year's vaccine a

H1N1, A/New Caledonia/20/99
H3N2, A/Panama/2007/99 (an A/Moscow/10/99-like virus)
B/Hong Kong/330/2001-like virus strain

It was known last spring that an antigenic variant of the H3N2-A influenza
was beginning to circulate, but at that time, a representative virus of
that
strain suitable for manufacture had not been isolated. To include this
strain would have delayed production of this year's vaccine, creating
shortages, and caused many vaccination programs to be started late in the
flu season. The news story you heard had it wrong, or you heard it wrong.
The three virus strains included in the vaccine are still circulating, and
are still "most likely" to cause you to have the flu. The divergent H3N2
is
out there though, and, yes, this may be a bad year for flu.

--Rich

"Marko Proberto" wrote in message
t...

"JG" wrote in message
t...
Looks like flu prognosticators/vaccine manufacturers might have been
off
a little off this year in their guesses as to which strains would be
prevalent. The Pikes Peak region has been hit hard already; ~1/3 of
the
kids at a nearby high school were out Monday, most, I suspect, with
flu.

Nice shot at the flu manufacturers. However, from another thread:

"Rich Shewmaker" wrote in message
...

No, the epidemiologists did not guess wrong, so wipe that sneer off
your
face. The strains included in this year's vaccine a

H1N1, A/New Caledonia/20/99
H3N2, A/Panama/2007/99 (an A/Moscow/10/99-like virus)
B/Hong Kong/330/2001-like virus strain

It was known last spring that an antigenic variant of the H3N2-A
influenza
was beginning to circulate, but at that time, a representative virus
of
that
strain suitable for manufacture had not been isolated. To include
this
strain would have delayed production of this year's vaccine,
creating
shortages, and caused many vaccination programs to be started late
in the
flu season...

Time--hindsight--will tell whether it was a lousy call to start
production w/o including the H3N2 *Fiji* strain. I was under the
impression that flu-vaccine manufacturers rely on the advice of *gubmnt*
epidemiologists (e.g., the CDC) regarding which flu strains will be
most prevalent/most deleterious in a given year. As such, I don't hold
the manufacturers (no shot at them g) accountable. I'm just hoping
that since the flu's arrived so (relatively) early here, it might, as
some are predicting (hoping?), be gone sooner. (Fat chance, perhaps;
out-of-state skiers may well re-introduce it to the state 'til late
spring. sigh)

According to an article on the New York Times website (and probably in
today's Times), it is a WHO committee that recommends the composition of the
vaccine. I am sure the CDC has input to the committee at the World Health
Organization.

The article also said that there is antigens from influenza viruses that are
similar to the one circulating. So,. there may be a lot of cross-reactivity,
meaning that the vaccine may provide some protection.And there have been no
reported cases of vaccine failure.

Jeff

"JG" wrote:

The Pikes Peak region has been hit hard already; ~1/3 of the
kids at a nearby high school were out Monday, most, I suspect, with flu.

Ski season really gets into full swing this weekend (thank heavens it's been
snowing heavily at many of the ski areas this week!)

Dpoes anyone else suspect that it might be the dreaded "white
flu", not the viral kind?

Tsu Dho Nimh

--
When businesses invoke the "protection of consumers," it's a lot like
politicians invoking morality and children - grab your wallet and/or
your kid and run for your life.