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The decline of rape



 
 
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  #1  
Old February 21st 07, 05:12 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
0:->
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 3,968
Default The decline of rape

The decline of rape
What the sharp decline in reported sexual assaults reveals about
today's youth.
By Mike Males, MIKE MALES is senior researcher at the Center on
Juvenile and Criminal Justice in San Francisco. E-mail:
.
Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007

NEWS FEATURES, political commentaries and institutional reports
incessantly berate the sexual excesses of modern teenagers. "Reports
of young studs 'playing rape' ... during recess, of 9-year-old sexual
harassers and fifth-grade rapists and sodomists have become too common
to pass off as simply anomalous," wrote conservative Manhattan
Institute researcher Kay Hymowitz. The progressive Media Education
Foundation, which distributes educational videos, warned in "Deadly
Persuasion" of "widespread and increasing violence against women" by
young men incited by brutal, misogynist popular culture and corporate
advertising.

Evidence supporting the claims of rising teenage sexual violence is
seldom offered. Commentators instead ask, given today's salacious ads,
slutty preteen styles, women-hating rap lyrics, MySpace.com, designer
porn and binge-drinking orgies, how could young people not be "hooking
up" more randomly, more violently and younger?

Yet crime reports, victimization surveys and public health measures
consistently reveal something else: large declines in the percentages
of young women reporting violence against them, especially sexual
attacks, and of young men committing rape and other violent offenses.

The U.S. Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey
(considered our best measure of crime because its anonymous surveys
capture offenses not reported to police) reports that rape has been
falling dramatically for decades. The first survey, in 1973, estimated
that 105,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped that year. In the
1980s and early 1990s, the survey was expanded to include sexual
assault and attempted or threatened offenses. Even so, the latest
survey (in a young female population 1 million larger than in 1973)
reported that 30,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped and 60,000
were victims of attempted rape or real or attempted sexual offenses
(including verbal threats) in 2005.

The crime surveys further indicate that the decline in sexual violence
is greater among younger females than older women. In the last dozen
years, they found that sexual victimization rates among girls ages 12
to 19 fell by 78% and among women ages 20 to 24 by 70%, nearly double
the drop among women older than 25.

The decrease in violence is reflected in big drops in teenage rape
arrests. Led by decreases of 90% in San Francisco, 85% in Orange,
Riverside and Ventura counties, and 80% in Los Angeles, San Bernardino
and Sacramento counties, California's teen rape-arrest rate fell by
70% over the last three decades. Fewer teens were arrested for rape in
2005 (236) than in 1957 (331), the first year statistics were
reported, in a teenage population just one-third today's.

But can we trust these statistics? Rape is an underreported crime:
Only four in 10 victims told the National Crime Victimization Survey
that they had reported their rapes to police. But rape is less hidden
than before. Thanks to feminist campaigns, laws have been extended to
criminalize nonconsensual sex with intoxicated, disabled, same-sex and
acquaintance victims and other offenses that narrower rape laws
excluded. All this makes the recent declines in teenage sexual
violence even more impressive.

Why has rape and violence against women, particularly younger women,
declined so dramatically over the last generation?

Little research exists on this question, and tentative explanations -
from tougher sentencing of violent offenders to pornography's effects
in sublimating violence - are not persuasive.

The three-decade decline in teenage and young-adult rape accompanies
huge drops in all crimes - murder, assault, drug abuse and property -
committed by youth. And get-tough policies designed to imprison more
teenagers don't seem to be a factor either. Just-released California
Division of Juvenile Justice figures show that fewer youths are locked
up today than in 1959, when numbers were first reported.

The most likely explanation involves impressive generational
developments. In 1970, women made up one-third of all college students
(versus 57% today), earned about one-fourth of all young-adult income
(versus nearly half today) and made up small fractions of doctors and
lawyers (versus majorities of new entrants into these fields now).
Women's rapidly rising status and economic independence in the larger
society fostered new attitudes and laws that rejected violence against
women.

That younger people growing up in this environment of greater gender
equality should show the biggest decreases in rape, while older
generations lag behind, is consistent with this explanation. The
youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older.

Ultimately, however, sexual violence remains a serious danger. That is
the best reason for rigorously scrutinizing its real patterns and
trends (rather than taking tiresome potshots at "young people" and
"popular culture") to learn how to further reduce it.

  #2  
Old February 23rd 07, 01:32 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
Greegor
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 4,243
Default The decline of rape

Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


On Feb 20, 10:12 pm, "0:-" wrote:
The decline of rape
What the sharp decline in reported sexual assaults reveals about
today's youth.
By Mike Males, MIKE MALES is senior researcher at the Center on
Juvenile and Criminal Justice in San Francisco. E-mail:
.
Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007

NEWS FEATURES, political commentaries and institutional reports
incessantly berate the sexual excesses of modern teenagers. "Reports
of young studs 'playing rape' ... during recess, of 9-year-old sexual
harassers and fifth-grade rapists and sodomists have become too common
to pass off as simply anomalous," wrote conservative Manhattan
Institute researcher Kay Hymowitz. The progressive Media Education
Foundation, which distributes educational videos, warned in "Deadly
Persuasion" of "widespread and increasing violence against women" by
young men incited by brutal, misogynist popular culture and corporate
advertising.

Evidence supporting the claims of rising teenage sexual violence is
seldom offered. Commentators instead ask, given today's salacious ads,
slutty preteen styles, women-hating rap lyrics, MySpace.com, designer
porn and binge-drinking orgies, how could young people not be "hooking
up" more randomly, more violently and younger?

Yet crime reports, victimization surveys and public health measures
consistently reveal something else: large declines in the percentages
of young women reporting violence against them, especially sexual
attacks, and of young men committing rape and other violent offenses.

The U.S. Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey
(considered our best measure of crime because its anonymous surveys
capture offenses not reported to police) reports that rape has been
falling dramatically for decades. The first survey, in 1973, estimated
that 105,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped that year. In the
1980s and early 1990s, the survey was expanded to include sexual
assault and attempted or threatened offenses. Even so, the latest
survey (in a young female population 1 million larger than in 1973)
reported that 30,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped and 60,000
were victims of attempted rape or real or attempted sexual offenses
(including verbal threats) in 2005.

The crime surveys further indicate that the decline in sexual violence
is greater among younger females than older women. In the last dozen
years, they found that sexual victimization rates among girls ages 12
to 19 fell by 78% and among women ages 20 to 24 by 70%, nearly double
the drop among women older than 25.

The decrease in violence is reflected in big drops in teenage rape
arrests. Led by decreases of 90% in San Francisco, 85% in Orange,
Riverside and Ventura counties, and 80% in Los Angeles, San Bernardino
and Sacramento counties, California's teen rape-arrest rate fell by
70% over the last three decades. Fewer teens were arrested for rape in
2005 (236) than in 1957 (331), the first year statistics were
reported, in a teenage population just one-third today's.

But can we trust these statistics? Rape is an underreported crime:
Only four in 10 victims told the National Crime Victimization Survey
that they had reported their rapes to police. But rape is less hidden
than before. Thanks to feminist campaigns, laws have been extended to
criminalize nonconsensual sex with intoxicated, disabled, same-sex and
acquaintance victims and other offenses that narrower rape laws
excluded. All this makes the recent declines in teenage sexual
violence even more impressive.

Why has rape and violence against women, particularly younger women,
declined so dramatically over the last generation?

Little research exists on this question, and tentative explanations -
from tougher sentencing of violent offenders to pornography's effects
in sublimating violence - are not persuasive.

The three-decade decline in teenage and young-adult rape accompanies
huge drops in all crimes - murder, assault, drug abuse and property -
committed by youth. And get-tough policies designed to imprison more
teenagers don't seem to be a factor either. Just-released California
Division of Juvenile Justice figures show that fewer youths are locked
up today than in 1959, when numbers were first reported.

The most likely explanation involves impressive generational
developments. In 1970, women made up one-third of all college students
(versus 57% today), earned about one-fourth of all young-adult income
(versus nearly half today) and made up small fractions of doctors and
lawyers (versus majorities of new entrants into these fields now).
Women's rapidly rising status and economic independence in the larger
society fostered new attitudes and laws that rejected violence against
women.

That younger people growing up in this environment of greater gender
equality should show the biggest decreases in rape, while older
generations lag behind, is consistent with this explanation. The
youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older.

Ultimately, however, sexual violence remains a serious danger. That is
the best reason for rigorously scrutinizing its real patterns and
trends (rather than taking tiresome potshots at "young people" and
"popular culture") to learn how to further reduce it.



  #3  
Old February 23rd 07, 04:32 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
0:-]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 805
Default The decline of rape

On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:

Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.

The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane




On Feb 20, 10:12 pm, "0:-" wrote:
The decline of rape
What the sharp decline in reported sexual assaults reveals about
today's youth.
By Mike Males, MIKE MALES is senior researcher at the Center on
Juvenile and Criminal Justice in San Francisco. E-mail:
.
Los Angeles Times, February 18, 2007

NEWS FEATURES, political commentaries and institutional reports
incessantly berate the sexual excesses of modern teenagers. "Reports
of young studs 'playing rape' ... during recess, of 9-year-old sexual
harassers and fifth-grade rapists and sodomists have become too common
to pass off as simply anomalous," wrote conservative Manhattan
Institute researcher Kay Hymowitz. The progressive Media Education
Foundation, which distributes educational videos, warned in "Deadly
Persuasion" of "widespread and increasing violence against women" by
young men incited by brutal, misogynist popular culture and corporate
advertising.

Evidence supporting the claims of rising teenage sexual violence is
seldom offered. Commentators instead ask, given today's salacious ads,
slutty preteen styles, women-hating rap lyrics, MySpace.com, designer
porn and binge-drinking orgies, how could young people not be "hooking
up" more randomly, more violently and younger?

Yet crime reports, victimization surveys and public health measures
consistently reveal something else: large declines in the percentages
of young women reporting violence against them, especially sexual
attacks, and of young men committing rape and other violent offenses.

The U.S. Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey
(considered our best measure of crime because its anonymous surveys
capture offenses not reported to police) reports that rape has been
falling dramatically for decades. The first survey, in 1973, estimated
that 105,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped that year. In the
1980s and early 1990s, the survey was expanded to include sexual
assault and attempted or threatened offenses. Even so, the latest
survey (in a young female population 1 million larger than in 1973)
reported that 30,000 females, ages 12 to 24, were raped and 60,000
were victims of attempted rape or real or attempted sexual offenses
(including verbal threats) in 2005.

The crime surveys further indicate that the decline in sexual violence
is greater among younger females than older women. In the last dozen
years, they found that sexual victimization rates among girls ages 12
to 19 fell by 78% and among women ages 20 to 24 by 70%, nearly double
the drop among women older than 25.

The decrease in violence is reflected in big drops in teenage rape
arrests. Led by decreases of 90% in San Francisco, 85% in Orange,
Riverside and Ventura counties, and 80% in Los Angeles, San Bernardino
and Sacramento counties, California's teen rape-arrest rate fell by
70% over the last three decades. Fewer teens were arrested for rape in
2005 (236) than in 1957 (331), the first year statistics were
reported, in a teenage population just one-third today's.

But can we trust these statistics? Rape is an underreported crime:
Only four in 10 victims told the National Crime Victimization Survey
that they had reported their rapes to police. But rape is less hidden
than before. Thanks to feminist campaigns, laws have been extended to
criminalize nonconsensual sex with intoxicated, disabled, same-sex and
acquaintance victims and other offenses that narrower rape laws
excluded. All this makes the recent declines in teenage sexual
violence even more impressive.

Why has rape and violence against women, particularly younger women,
declined so dramatically over the last generation?

Little research exists on this question, and tentative explanations -
from tougher sentencing of violent offenders to pornography's effects
in sublimating violence - are not persuasive.

The three-decade decline in teenage and young-adult rape accompanies
huge drops in all crimes - murder, assault, drug abuse and property -
committed by youth. And get-tough policies designed to imprison more
teenagers don't seem to be a factor either. Just-released California
Division of Juvenile Justice figures show that fewer youths are locked
up today than in 1959, when numbers were first reported.

The most likely explanation involves impressive generational
developments. In 1970, women made up one-third of all college students
(versus 57% today), earned about one-fourth of all young-adult income
(versus nearly half today) and made up small fractions of doctors and
lawyers (versus majorities of new entrants into these fields now).
Women's rapidly rising status and economic independence in the larger
society fostered new attitudes and laws that rejected violence against
women.

That younger people growing up in this environment of greater gender
equality should show the biggest decreases in rape, while older
generations lag behind, is consistent with this explanation. The
youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older.

Ultimately, however, sexual violence remains a serious danger. That is
the best reason for rigorously scrutinizing its real patterns and
trends (rather than taking tiresome potshots at "young people" and
"popular culture") to learn how to further reduce it.



  #4  
Old February 24th 07, 01:32 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
David J. Hughes
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default The decline of rape

0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:


Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???



Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.


Correlation does not imply causation..

Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:
The less corporal punishment the less youth crime
The more internet porn the less youth crime
The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime
The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime
The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime
The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane





----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =----
  #5  
Old February 24th 07, 01:40 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
Doan
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,380
Default The decline of rape

Hahaha! Is Kane still claimg the decline of crime was due to the decline
in spanking??? What about the crime rates during the mid '90's, Kane?

Doan


On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, David J. Hughes wrote:

0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:


Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???



Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.


Correlation does not imply causation..

Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:
The less corporal punishment the less youth crime
The more internet porn the less youth crime
The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime
The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime
The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime
The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane





----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =----


  #6  
Old February 24th 07, 02:31 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
0:-]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 805
Default The decline of rape

On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 18:32:33 -0600, "David J. Hughes"
wrote:

0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:


Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???



Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.


Correlation does not imply causation..


Oddly you are wrong. In fact, correlation is one of the contributing
parts of findings of causation, but this is a popular comment to make,
and you made it.

Correlations, statistically examined reach the point of being accepted
as cause in many instances.

Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:


No, actually it's not. There must be some logical reasonable
connections or connection.

The less corporal punishment the less youth crime


Violent crime, and other crime, has been causaly linked to childhood
"trauma." Trauma is what cp is about, and it's intent.

The more internet porn the less youth crime


The might actually be a connection. It should be examined.

The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime


Nope. This one has not been examined. Nice try though.

The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime


RIDICULOUS.


The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime
The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime


All ridiculous, because there is no logical connection by correlation.

You must show a track of violence to crime. Spanking is a violent
act,and even the users would agree to that, but fight the use of the
language.

The point of CP is to cause PAIN. Causing pain is violent.


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane





You are to be commended. You did a great job, repeating like a parrot,
the claim of "correlation is not causation."

Problem is correlation is a very useful tool, IF it's used correctly.

Thanks for bringing this up.

I've said it before, though, and I will again.

Kane



----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =----


  #7  
Old February 24th 07, 02:32 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
0:-]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 805
Default The decline of rape

On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 16:40:13 -0800, Doan wrote:

Hahaha! Is Kane still claimg the decline of crime was due to the decline
in spanking??? What about the crime rates during the mid '90's, Kane?


That's when adults that were spanked more as children were becoming
teens and young adults. And other factors were coming up as well.

Was it true for youth?



Doan


On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, David J. Hughes wrote:

0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:


Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.


Correlation does not imply causation..

Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:
The less corporal punishment the less youth crime
The more internet porn the less youth crime
The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime
The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime
The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime
The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane





----== Posted via Newsfeeds.Com - Unlimited-Unrestricted-Secure Usenet News==----
http://www.newsfeeds.com The #1 Newsgroup Service in the World! 120,000+ Newsgroups
----= East and West-Coast Server Farms - Total Privacy via Encryption =----


  #8  
Old February 25th 07, 03:19 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
David J. Hughes
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 2
Default The decline of rape

0:-] wrote:
On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 18:32:33 -0600, "David J. Hughes"
wrote:


0:-] wrote:

On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:



Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.


Correlation does not imply causation..



Oddly you are wrong. In fact, correlation is one of the contributing
parts of findings of causation, but this is a popular comment to make,
and you made it.


The statement "correlation does not imply causation" is inarguably true.
Likewise, the statement "Correlation suggests a link to causation" is
equally true.
You stated "The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime".
This is true, but you statement suggests causation, without support.
Had you stated "There is good evidence that the less corporal punishment
the less youth crime", particularly with citations of the evidence, I
would have had no reason to post.

I intentionally used a mixture of possible, arguable and ridiculous true
correllations to point out the validity of the the statement
"Correlation does not imply causation."

Correlations, statistically examined reach the point of being accepted
as cause in many instances.


"Lies, damned lies and statistics" g.
Statistical evidence can support a hypothesis, but can never prove it.
At best, it can support the statement "this may be true by the best
evidence we have avaialble at this time."
Note, please, that my disagreement is not with your position, but rather
with how you presented your position.
Anytime anyone presents anything as the absolute TRUTH, I feel the need
to put one hand on my wallet and look for the nearest exit.



Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:



No, actually it's not. There must be some logical reasonable
connections or connection.


The less corporal punishment the less youth crime



Violent crime, and other crime, has been causaly linked to childhood
"trauma." Trauma is what cp is about, and it's intent.


The more internet porn the less youth crime



The might actually be a connection. It should be examined.


The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime



Nope. This one has not been examined. Nice try though.


This one could be argued on the structure of the studies conducted.
"Self fulfilling prophecies" are one of the major stumbling blocks in
any such study.


The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime



RIDICULOUS.


Almost certainly.


The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime


Equally ridiculous as the previous.

The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime



All ridiculous, because there is no logical connection by correlation.


Both these last two are arguable, particularly since you were using sex
crimes as the primary focus of your post.
Logical connections are the reduction in financial and sexual needs to
prompt criminal action.

You must show a track of violence to crime.


Nonsense. Criminal behavior exists in persons who have never been the
victim of violence, and victims of the most horrific violence have
become upright, law abiding individuals.

The violence/crime connection is a factor, but not an absolute.

Spanking is a violent
act,and even the users would agree to that, but fight the use of the
language.

The point of CP is to cause PAIN. Causing pain is violent.


Causing injury MAY be violent. Pain is frequently an unfortunate side
effect of beneficial behavior.
Causing pain is not necessarily violent. Deflowering one's virgin wife
in the marriage bed can very painful, but that is not the intent.
Please examine your language use for clarity.
Emotionally laden terms tend to hamper meaningful discussions.


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane




You are to be commended. You did a great job, repeating like a parrot,
the claim of "correlation is not causation."


"Correlation does not imply causation" is not the same as "correlation
is not causation."
If you must parrot, please do so correctly. G


Problem is correlation is a very useful tool, IF it's used correctly.


Agreed.

Thanks for bringing this up.

I've said it before, though, and I will again.

Kane



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  #9  
Old February 25th 07, 04:18 AM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
0:-]
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 805
Default The decline of rape

On Sat, 24 Feb 2007 20:19:23 -0600, "David J. Hughes"
wrote:

0:-] wrote:
On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 18:32:33 -0600, "David J. Hughes"
wrote:


0:-] wrote:

On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:



Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.

Correlation does not imply causation..



Oddly you are wrong. In fact, correlation is one of the contributing
parts of findings of causation, but this is a popular comment to make,
and you made it.


The statement "correlation does not imply causation" is inarguably true.


Nothing is "inarguably true."

Please show support for that claim.

Likewise, the statement "Correlation suggests a link to causation" is
equally true.


Yes. Though it too is not "inarguably true."

You stated "The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime".
This is true, but you statement suggests causation, without support.


I'm always facinated by argument posed by projection and reframing the
oppenent.

I made no such claim. "Suggests" is YOUR claim, not mine.

I did not suggest causation, nor does my statement do so, except by
your opinion of it. You are welcome to your opinion, but I don't argue
much with opinions.

Had you stated "There is good evidence that the less corporal punishment
the less youth crime", particularly with citations of the evidence, I
would have had no reason to post.


Then presume that was my meaning. You seem willing to "presume" other
things I didn't say, or mean...why not this?

I would, however, respond, if I were my own opponent, to that
statement with, "show the evidence please."

I intentionally used a mixture of possible, arguable and ridiculous true
correllations to point out the validity of the the statement
"Correlation does not imply causation."


You can't really believe I wasn't aware of that immediately, now can
you?

Correlations, statistically examined reach the point of being accepted
as cause in many instances.


"Lies, damned lies and statistics" g.


The book by Darrell Huff sits just about 6 inches from my left hand as
I type this. It's red, and a very old copy, well worn and wrinkled
from dealing with the Doans of the world. 0:-]

Statistical evidence can support a hypothesis, but can never prove it.


Stating the obvious. Do you presume I'd argue otherwise?

Nothing, as far as I'm concerned is proven conclusively. The "science"
of the middle ages is viewed as we will one day far in the future view
the science of today.

It's amazing how very wrong we can find outselves to be...or how very
must the langauge must change and grow to express our new
understanding and findings.

At best, it can support the statement "this may be true by the best
evidence we have avaialble at this time."


Well, we can presume all argument is so limited.

Note, please, that my disagreement is not with your position, but rather
with how you presented your position.


Okay.

Anytime anyone presents anything as the absolute TRUTH, I feel the need
to put one hand on my wallet and look for the nearest exit.


Well, you are now burdened, by me, with showing how my statement
constituted a claim of "absolute TRUTH."

What I said, and you can check in attributions above, is this: "The
truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime."

I make no claim of cause. Only that they have been argued by OTHERS
here as to have a link by claims that the less spanking is accepted in
this society the more crime, violent crime, by youth.

The fact is quite the opposite. Youth crime was high at one point, and
has continued to drop over the years, since about 1999, about what one
would find marks a continuing drop in the use of CP on children.

I am not making a claim but refuting theirs.

I am not sure there IS a causal connection. I continue to explore the
possible correlation. But what I do know is THEIR ARGUMENT THAT LESS
SPANKING MEANS MORE YOUTH CRIME is full of holes.



Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:



No, actually it's not. There must be some logical reasonable
connections or connection.


The less corporal punishment the less youth crime



Violent crime, and other crime, has been causaly linked to childhood
"trauma." Trauma is what cp is about, and it's intent.


The more internet porn the less youth crime



The might actually be a connection. It should be examined.


The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime



Nope. This one has not been examined. Nice try though.


This one could be argued on the structure of the studies conducted.
"Self fulfilling prophecies" are one of the major stumbling blocks in
any such study.


That is why I've never made a causal claim concerning spanking and
crime. I have only pointed out the opposition's weak argument for a
causal link to "less spanking equals more youth violent crime."


The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime



RIDICULOUS.


Almost certainly.


The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime


Equally ridiculous as the previous.

The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime



All ridiculous, because there is no logical connection by correlation.


Both these last two are arguable, particularly since you were using sex
crimes as the primary focus of your post.


That itself is arguable. At least some rapes are not sex crimes for
the purpose of having sex.

Logical connections are the reduction in financial and sexual needs to
prompt criminal action.


Your unfamiliarity with this ng has gotten in the way of the argument
between us.

"Rape" in this instance isn't about "sex crimes," but about the claim
that violent crime by youth is linked to failure to spank them.


You must show a track of violence to crime.


Nonsense. Criminal behavior exists in persons who have never been the
victim of violence, and victims of the most horrific violence have
become upright, law abiding individuals.


Of course. That proves nothing.

Many people that drank milk as a child still develop osteoperosis in
late adulthood.

It doesn't prove that one should not drink milk to avoid the
condition...but we are reasonably sure that failure to drink milk in
childhood does result in bone formation problems in adulthood, even in
societies where beyond weaning humans do not consume milk any longer.

Years ago a researcher (he may no longer be alive, or still active in
academia) got a grant to go into the prison population and explore, by
survey, (I presume with permission, view the prisoner's records, as
well as interview) to determine what the incidence of violent crime
was for those imprisoned for it that had NOT experienced a violent
childhood.

You KNOW the answer.

He found NONE. He gave up the research because there was nothing left
to examine. NO subjects were found, who were convicted and imprisoned
for violent crimes, that had not themselves had a violent upbringing.

Having done a little bit of work with this population both in juvenile
and adult systems I concur. I never found a violent criminal that had
not had a violent childhood.

I never found a violent criminal that had a gentle loving non-violent
upbringing.

I did, when I was doing work in mental health find one such person,
but his psychiatric evaluation explained that one.

The violence/crime connection is a factor, but not an absolute.


Well, that is a specious argument. It applies so generally there can
be no argument. Nothing is 'absolute' in the sense of "connection."

And if you'll go back and review my comments and yours, you'll find I
made NO absolute, and you presumed one.

The "truth" as I stated it, had to do with pointing out that the
opposition argument that failure to spank creates young criminals was
my point.


Spanking is a violent
act,and even the users would agree to that, but fight the use of the
language.

The point of CP is to cause PAIN. Causing pain is violent.


Causing injury MAY be violent.


Yes, sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't.

I just had a bit of skin surgery..in office..and it was quite painful.
Neither the doctor, his nurse, or myself engaged in any violence
during the proceedure. I felt most kindly toward him, and he treated
me most kindly.

Pain is frequently an unfortunate side
effect of beneficial behavior.


I don't operate on children. Nor do most parents, even their own.

Are you suggesting that old saw, "I'm doing this for your own good,"
an argument?

Causing pain is not necessarily violent.


I grow weary of the obvious. I hope you get to your point.

Deflowering one's virgin wife
in the marriage bed can very painful, but that is not the intent.
Please examine your language use for clarity.
Emotionally laden terms tend to hamper meaningful discussions.


"Inarguably true,""absolute TRUTH,"Nonsense. Criminal behavior exists
in persons who have never been the victim of violence, and victims of
the most horrific violence have become upright, law abiding
individuals."

Recognize them?


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane




You are to be commended. You did a great job, repeating like a parrot,
the claim of "correlation is not causation."


"Correlation does not imply causation" is not the same as "correlation
is not causation."
If you must parrot, please do so correctly. G


Thank you for the correction.

It does not change your statement one bit from my claim, however. It
is parroting on your part.

An attempt to argue from "authority," where you premise rests on
rewriting what I actually wrote.

I said "truth," you claimed I meant "absolute TRUTH" by attacking the
latter 'statement.'

One I did not make.

And I was not supporting or attacking the facts I related from the
report, but pointing out to Greg that he and his cronies that claim
that failure to "discipline" by the use of corporal punishment will
result in higher crime rates by youth does not hold water.


Problem is correlation is a very useful tool, IF it's used correctly.


Agreed.

Thanks for bringing this up.

I've said it before, though, and I will again.

Kane



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  #10  
Old February 26th 07, 06:37 PM posted to alt.parenting.spanking
Doan
external usenet poster
 
Posts: 1,380
Default The decline of rape

On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, 0:-] wrote:

On Fri, 23 Feb 2007 16:40:13 -0800, Doan wrote:

Hahaha! Is Kane still claimg the decline of crime was due to the decline
in spanking??? What about the crime rates during the mid '90's, Kane?


That's when adults that were spanked more as children were becoming
teens and young adults. And other factors were coming up as well.

Hihihi! So before that, they were spanking LESS???

Doan

Was it true for youth?



Doan


On Fri, 23 Feb 2007, David J. Hughes wrote:

0:-] wrote:
On 22 Feb 2007 16:32:17 -0800, "Greegor" wrote:


Is this a SPANKING issue?
Why was it posted ONLY to alt.parenting.spanking ???


Oh, maybe because spanking is falling into more and more disfavor,
with less of it going on.

And:

"The youngest teenagers (presumably those raised with the most modern
attitudes) show the biggest declines of all. Over the last 30 years,
rape arrest rates have fallen by 80% among Californians under age 15,
much larger than the 25% drop among residents age 40 and older."

The claim that "youth is running wild," has been around since it was
popular to claim it in ancient Rome.

The truth is the less corporal punishment the less youth crime, Greg.

Correlation does not imply causation..

Premise: there is less youth crime currently than formerly.
It is equally valid to say:
The less corporal punishment the less youth crime
The more internet porn the less youth crime
The greater the violence in video games the less youth crime
The higher the average planetary temperature the less youth crime
The higher the atmospheric concentration of CO2 the less youth crime
The higher the median family income the less youth crime
The greater the availability of consensual sex acts the less youth crime


The trends have followed each other very closely.

It used to be, for instance, that while toddlers were spanked (they
still are) it tended to continue on into older age groups as well.

It no longer does.

Read up. Get educated. Learn the truth...or are you afraid you'll lose
all your biases?

R R R R R R RRRRRRRRRRRRR R R ....

Kane





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