Measles cases look likely to exceed worst predictions

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article...227890,00.html

Measles cases look likely to exceed worst predictions
By Sam Lister, Health Correspondent
June 16, 2006

THE number of measles cases seen by doctors since January is five times
higher than during all last year, prompting renewed fears of an epidemic
triggered by poor uptake of the combined MMR vaccine.

Figures released yesterday by the Health Protection Agency show that the
public health watchdog confirmed 449 cases of measles in England and Wales
by the end of last month. It is the highest number recorded since infection
monitoring was introduced a decade ago.

Only 77 people suffered from the potentially fatal illness last year. Should
the current rate of infection continue, there would be more than 1,000 cases
in 2006.

The figures were released by the agency as experts reiterated warnings of a
large-scale measles outbreak. The rise is attributed largely to parents
being afraid to give children the measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine
because of unfounded fears that it could cause autism or bowel problems.

This year a 13-year-old boy died in the North of England from measles. The
teenager, who came from a traveller community, was Britain's first measles
fatality in 14 years.

The disease causes breathing difficulties, diarrhoea, ear, lung and eye
infections and, in serious cases, swells the brain.

Mary Ramsay, a consultant epidemiologist with the agency, said that this
year's cases did not yet constitute a national outbreak, but that parents
should ensure all their children are immunised with MMR.

"We have been experiencing a number of localised outbreaks this year, the
largest of which have been in the Surrey and Sussex and the South Yorkshire
areas," she said. "These outbreaks have been amongst communities where MMR
uptake is lower and have also involved cases in travelling communities, who
are more difficult to reach with vaccines."

She added that although numbers have reached their highest levels since the
agency began monitoring in 1995, high numbers of cases have been recorded in
previous years, with 438 in 2003 and 191 in 2004.

Dr Ramsay added that unconfirmed cases went into the thousands before
monitoring. More than 86,000 were recorded in 1988, the year that the MMR
vaccine was introduced. This year, there have been 1,777 unconfirmed cases.
She said that health teams were working closely with local health services
to try to increase uptake in such areas.

"Despite these outbreaks public confidence in the MMR vaccine is returning,
and coverage is increasing," she said. "Coverage among two-year-olds in June
2005 was 83 per cent, up from 78.9 per cent in January 2003. This is an
encouraging trend although more remains to be done in order to ensure that
all children are fully protected."

The news of the outbreak comes days after the General Medical Council said
that Andrew Wakefield, the controversial doctor who sparked the MMR vaccine
scare, could face a charge of serious professional misconduct. Dr Wakefield'
s research, published in The Lancet in 1998, suggested a link between the
MMR jab and autism and bowel problems.

Public concern led to uptake of the vaccine for children aged under 2
falling from about 92 per cent in 1995-96 to 82 per cent in 2002-03. But
uptake remains as low as 70 per cent in some areas. Mainstream science has
found no evidence to support the theory of a link between MMR and autism.