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#81
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
On Sat, 18 Oct 2003, Michael S. Morris wrote: Saturday, the 18th of October, 2003 I would like to make a side comment here that gives a few links to some web resources I think are pretty cool. The general problem is argument by "social scientists" from out of empirical studies resulting in weak correlations. For example, one of the most widely touted anti-spanking studies is the one by Murray Straus, David Sugarman, and Jean Giles-Sims, "Spanking by Parents and Subsequent Antisocial Behavior of Children", 1997 (Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine). (NB: Kane has not touted this particular study, so this is not immediately relevant to any argument with him.) The text of their article can be found at http://www.unh.edu/frl/cp24.htm, although links to figures and tables seem sadly to be broken. It's not too difficult to read. Basically what they did is looked at a "longitudinal study" (a study over years of time) of mothers with children where data were available for such things as frequency of spanking at ages 6-9 and anti-social behaviour two years later. Call the spanking CP (for "corporal punishment") and the anti-social behaviour later, ASB. Then a naive advocate of spanking might expect that the greater the CP, the lower the ASB (i.e. spanking reduces bad behaviour). The authors begin with this data set of 7725 women with 8513 children studied between 1979 and 1988. They then pare the data set down to study only those women with chidren between the ages of 6 and 9 in 1988 (only 1239 children), and then, of those, the ones for whom all data they wanted to control for (such as SES "social economic status") were available (910 children). This amounted to 807 mothers. And, what they found is a positive correlation between CP and ASB. The authors are clearly anti-spanking and they see this finding as evidence that spanking *causes* the ASB. The problem with this study is that the "zero-group" is actually group that spanked less than once a week. This group actually show a DECREASE in ASB - a benefit! "We are indebted to Larzelere et al for alerting us to the likelihood that our no-spanking group includes occasional spankers. To the extent that this is the case, the decrease in antisocial behavior that we found for children in the "none" group may indicate an improvement in the behavior of children whose parents spank, but do so only infrequently. Although that is a plausible interpretation, data from another study enable us to investigate this issue by classifying spanking as "never" or "not in the past 6 months," or the frequency of corporal punishment (CP) in the previous 6 months.[1] " [1] -This is the Straus & Mouradian (1998) study, which we now know that the correlation between ASB and non-cp alternatives are even stronger than spanking. Now you know why Dr. LaVonne won't dare to debate me on these studies. :-) Anyway, some of the details of their analysis are contained in the paper, and one can certainly argue extensively with their interpretation, the meanings they attach to various "scores" that are used for the purposes of analysis, etc., but, what I wanted to point to is the 2nd paragraph under the tile Results and subtitle Correlation Analysis. Notice that the correlation coefficients being reported are numbers in the range r=0.20-0.29. What I want to point to is what that means. If you've had any course in laboratory science, you'll know that even data points which are expected to follow some known linear relationship in physics often don't. There will be error in measurements from various cources, and there will be random scatter of the data about the expected relation. What these authors are doing is linear regression, essentially plotting data points of (CP, ASB) as (x,y) in what is called a "scatter plot", and then getting their computer (although graphing calculators now do this easily) to draw a best-fit line through the data (a line which technically minimizes the sum of the squared distances to the line from the data points). A rather encyclopaedic resource on linear regression can be found at http://www.sportsci.org/resource/stats/index.html. But, basically, what is important here are two things: The slope found for the line, and the correlation coefficient. (If the slope is positive, then you tend to get more ASB later for more CP now. If it were negative, then you'd get less ASB later for more CP now.) But, also, there is the question of how good does a line model what's going on, and that is what the correlation coefficient is (partly) telling you. For a data set with r=+1.0, that means the data points all line up perfectly on a line of positive slope (we'd call that a correlation). For a data set with r=-1.0, that means the data points all line up on a line with negative slope (we'd call that an anti-correlation). If r=0.0, then the data are uncorrelated. So, what does a correlation coefficient of r=0.29 mean? Well, that's what I wanted to give what I think is a really cool link for: http://www.stat.uiuc.edu/~stat100/java/guess/PPApplet.html This is a little applet that allows you to click the mouse and put down data points, and it will calculate and show you the best fit line (by linear regression) to your data, and calculate the correlation coefficient. It is fun to play with. Try to put down lines of data and see what you get. Then put down lines of data where the data points are "off" the line. Then try to put down data sets that are uncorrelated (circles of data, or "shotgun"-style clusters of data points). Try making a cluster of data points with a weak correlation and then add a few points far outside the cluster and watch what happens to that correlation. Then, explore using the random points button. For instance, I stuck in 807 points with a correlation coefficient of r=0.29 (note that this would be fewer than the study above used for any given correlation, since they are taking subsets of the 807 possible points in order to control for other factors such as age and SES). Anyway, notice how uncorrelated it looks? I think by playing around with this lovely little toy you can convince yourself a correlation coefficient of r0.30 means the data aren't very correlated at all. Also, you should be able to see that data which, say, were mostly uncorrelated could have a correlated component superposed on it, which would increase the r. Mike Morris ) Actually, this methodology is very weak, as pointed out by Dr. Miller [begin include] The Pediatric Forum - March 1998 Drawing Conclusions About Temporal Order Two recent articles published in the ARCHIVES[1,2] argue that they have found evidence for "causal" relationships between spanking and antisocial behavior in children, such that increased spanking causes antisocial behavior. Unfortunately, their methods do not allow for such conclusions. In fact, their methods do not allow for any conclusions at all. I believe it is particularly important to point out these mistakes because they have become commonplace in the social sciences[3] and it is important that these mistakes do not become commonplace in medical research. One initial mistake made by both authors is the claim that they are testing for causality with longitudinal data.[1] Causal inferences can only be drawn from experiments.[4] What can be tested for with longitudinal data is temporal order.[5] Temporal order is frequently cited as an important aspect of causality.[4] In longitudinal research, the temporal order between variables can be known or unknown. For example, the temporal order between sex and risk of heart disease is clear: sex is most often assigned at birth and heart disease usually develops in middle or old age. In contrast, the temporal order between spanking and antisocial behavior is unknown. In cases where temporal order is known, standard statistical methods such as regression models or the analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach chosen by Straus et al[1] can be used. Structural equation modeling, as used by Gunnoe and Mariner,[2] was originally thought to be a technique that can be used for ascertaining temporal order.[6,7] Unfortunately, Rogosa[3] demonstrated that this was not the case and that the coefficients produced by structural models were essentially meaningless. He showed that the coefficients produced by structural analysis are more related to the length of time between testing than to the actual data and demonstrated in a simulation study that some predictive correlations changed from 0.5 to -0.5 depending on the length of time between waves of testing. The problems associated with structural analysis also apply to the ANOVA approach used by Straus et al. Miller and colleagues[8-10] demonstrated the same problem hypothesized by Rogosa with actual data. They found in 3 studies that actual temporal order was the reverse of what was concluded by regression equations. The primary problem with regression and structural equation models is that they do not control or test for concurrent change. Thus, it is possible that spanking and antisocial behavior change together over time and that shorter time intervals are required to assess any temporal order.[10] Any variation that could be ascribed to concurrent change is simply not taken into account by the statistical models used by Straus et al and Gunnoe and Mariner. Dywer and Feinleib[5] and Miller[10] have suggested appropriate statistical methods that can be used for determining temporal order with longitudinal data. For these methods, both spanking and antisocial behavior must be assessed at 3 or more time points. As Rogosa[3] pointed out, it takes 3 time points to correctly assess the trajectory of a single subject. Therefore, at least 3 time points are required to assess intraindividual change. Straus et al had 3 waves of data, so they may have been able to conduct an analysis that could determine temporal order between these variables. The study by Gunnoe and Mariner had only 2 waves of data, so their design does not allow determinations of temporal order. Straus et al did not report whether spanking behavior was assessed at the last data collection point. To test for temporal order, each variable would have to be assessed at all 3 points. Therefore, it is unclear whether Straus et al could have conducted an analysis to determine temporal order. In sum, no causal or temporal inferences can be drawn from either Straus et al or Gunnoe and Mariner because causal inferences cannot be drawn from longitudinal data and inappropriate statistical methods were used to determine temporal order. Todd Q. Miller, PhD Preventive Medicine and Community Health, K53 University of Texas Medical Branch Galveston, TX 77598-1153 References 1. Straus MA, Sugarman DB, Giles-Sims J. Spanking by parents and subsequent antisocial behavior of children. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 1997;151:761-767. 2. Gunnoe ML, Mariner CL. Toward a developmental-contextual model of the effects of parental spanking on children's aggression. Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 1997;151:768-786. 3. Rogosa D. Myths about longitudinal research. In: Schaie KW, Campbell RT, Meredith W, Rawlings SC, eds. Methodological Issues in Aging Research. New York, NY: Springer Publishing Co Inc; 1988. 4. Holland PW. Statistics and causal inference. J Am Stat Assoc. 1986;81:945-960. 5. Dwyer J, Feinleib M. Introduction to statistical models for longitudinal observation. In: Dwyer J, Feinleib M, Lippert P, Hoffmeister H, eds. Statistical Models for Longitudinal Studies of Health. New York, NY: Oxford University Press; 1992. 6. Kenny DA. Cross-lagged panel correlations: a test for spuriousness. Psychol Bull. 1975;82:887-903. 7. Newcomb MD, Bentler PM. Frequency and sequence of drug use: a longitudinal study from early adolescence to young adulthood. J Drug Educ. 1986;16:101-120. 8. Miller T, Flay BR. Using log-linear models for longitudinal data to test alternative explanations for stage-like phenomena: an example from research on adolescent substance use. Multivar Behav Res. 1996;31:169-196. 9. Miller T, Volk R. The relationship between weekly marijuana use and cocaine use: a discrete-time survival analysis. J Child Adolesc Subst Abuse. 1996;5:55-78. 10. Miller T. Statistical methods for describing temporal order in longitudinal research. J Clin Epidemiol. In press. (Arch Pediatr Adolesc Med. 1998;152:305-306) [end include] Doan |
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
"Doan" wrote in message ... On 18 Oct 2003, Kane wrote: (...) From 19 on I hardly had a week go by when it wasn't a consideration. My 4 year military experience was especially telling. The weirdest troops I knew, some very dangerous or at least perverse in the telling, were spanked folks. LOL! Personal opinion again! (...) For some amazing reason, I never had a single data point on spanked/non-spanked provided to me by the people I served with in the military. Somehow, it *never* came up. Young men responding to a question "where you spanked as a child" I would expect to be answer with bravado and exaggerated bragging...because that's what young men in the military *do*. Imagine this picture... 18 to 20 year old young men sitting in the barracks BSing. One of them says..."let's discuss comparative parenting styles, eh?" Now who is weird? Imagine 18 to 20 year old young men sitting in the barracks BSing and someone talks about the fights he'd get in with his dad and the first time he came out on top. Oh, yeah? sez the next guy. You should 'a seen *my* old man... the next next guy...not to be outdone... explains that his old lady could take any of the other guy's dads, why one time she took after me and my sister and... Perverse in the telling? This is the military we're talking about, right? Perverse in the telling is a military ART. --Julie |
#84
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
Oh, yeah? sez the next guy. You should 'a seen *my* old man...
Julie: Good point. For GI's it's a braggadocio thing. A tough guys version of keeping up with the Joneses. It seems like CPS caseworkers probably brag up the horror cases. There is another effect where cops and caseworkers report on a case and later objects and situations are twice as big or ten times worse than it was on their reports. It's called progressive elaboration. Each time the story is told even by the same person more and more exaggeration takes place. This effect takes place even worse as these people pass the story between each other, as in the old game of "telephone". Also known as gossip. Kane and pro-CPS people like to use what is known as demogoguery, where they pretend that every one of thousands of child removals is because of horrible blood, broken bones and sexual abuse. The reality is just not so ""exciting"" for people living out a rescue fantasy. The GI's want to best each other at being tough. The cops need validation as ""heros"" getting the bad guys. The caseworkers need to conceal the fact that 95+ percent of their cases are boring as hell and don't involve ""saving"" any child. Isn't it all "keeping up with the Joneses" sorta? |
#85
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
"Julie Pascal" wrote in message
... "Doan" wrote in message ... On 18 Oct 2003, Kane wrote: (...) From 19 on I hardly had a week go by when it wasn't a consideration. My 4 year military experience was especially telling. The weirdest troops I knew, some very dangerous or at least perverse in the telling, were spanked folks. LOL! Personal opinion again! (...) For some amazing reason, I never had a single data point on spanked/non-spanked provided to me by the people I served with in the military. Then you didn't serve in the same profession I did. Somehow, it *never* came up. Don't tell me. You were a cook. Young men responding to a question "where you spanked as a child" I would expect to be answer with bravado and exaggerated bragging...because that's what young men in the military *do*. Not in the setting I asked such questions. Imagine this picture... 18 to 20 year old young men sitting in the barracks BSing. One of them says..."let's discuss comparative parenting styles, eh?" Now who is weird? You for thinking I was just sitting around the barracks chatting up the troops. Imagine 18 to 20 year old young men sitting in the barracks BSing and someone talks about the fights he'd get in with his dad and the first time he came out on top. Oh, yeah? sez the next guy. You should 'a seen *my* old man... the next next guy...not to be outdone... explains that his old lady could take any of the other guy's dads, why one time she took after me and my sister and... Sounds like you did a lot of sitting around the barracks goldbrickin' Perverse in the telling? You'd be even more amazed at some of the responses I got to my list of questions. This is the military we're talking about, right? Yep. Perverse in the telling is a military ART. Well, if you say so, dearie. Where I asked the questions misleading me could result in a courts martial or at least an Article 15. kapeesh? The USAF didn't just let anyone do the job I was interviewing them to send them off to school to learn. Ever been in a strategic missile silo? Ever wondered about the stability of those that send those merry giants on their way? Want some spanked kiddies to grow up and get into that line of work? We asked the question and others to determine the fitness just for the training...let alone for the work. Much more psych evals were being done during and after training...and periodically on duty. And spanked boys and girls were rejected. Routinely. They do NOT hold up well under the kind of stress involved in a missile silo. Guess why. --Julie yawn |
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
"Kane" wrote in message om... You for thinking I was just sitting around the barracks chatting up the troops. Actually, considering your history of spouting unsupported 'facts', I haven't ruled out the possibility that you are exaggerating, fabricating, or downright lying. |
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| U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
On Mon, 20 Oct 2003 23:20:54 -0400, "Ray Drouillard"
wrote: "Kane" wrote in message . com... You for thinking I was just sitting around the barracks chatting up the troops. Actually, considering your history of spouting unsupported 'facts', I haven't ruled out the possibility that you are exaggerating, fabricating, or downright lying. Funny, I had the same thought about you. I find that those that can't figure out that being hit and being spanked are mutually inclusive are having some major thinking errors and lying to perpetuate that is rife among the bull**** crowd. USAF, honorable discharge, January 1960. At least that is what my DD214 says. My service was in military intelligence. I taught pilots, in TAC, (Tactical Air Command) enemy aircraft identification and created the first handheld flashcards for pilot inflight use. I hear they were still around twenty years later, no longer in my primative 3 by 5 color coded cards with a stationary screw post through the corner for ease of browsing one handed format though. I hear they went slick with a nice non-reflective waterproof coating and they fastened to a holder that let one just push a button to fan through them. Course that was about five years ago I heard that, and my best guess is now it's all on a LCD readout and much more sophisticated than my simple tool. I suspect it's now voice activated and includes sound with a heads up projection on the canopy forward. Instant comparison of the virtual to the live craft right outside the cockpit. My other later jobs were much more interesting. E&E pilot trainer for SAC and later preliminary testing I performed on candidates for missile control. I was assigned to Strategic Air Command when General Curtis E. LeMay commanded. He had a habit of lighting up his ubiquitious cigar on the flight line and would occasionally bust any enlisted man down one rank that would ask him to put it out if they pushed it too hard. Officers knew better. Pity the poor Airman Basic. Aviation fuel do burn bright, it do, but so far as I know he never lit up a SAC bomber. I didn't last long in the air command portion as my considerable talents sent me into training settings. Modesty has never been a problem for me. Any more you want to know about my long and interesting life. Ask me about working with horses. Or try classical guitar. I cook in three languages, Guandong (Cantonese) being my favorite. I'm one of those annoying renaissance men. I actually have built a house (more than one), delivered a baby (more than one), commanded and been commanded, planned and executed a military excursion (E&E, it's sorta like Lazertag and a Dungeons and Dragons combined...only you get to really die of you don't do it well.) I've rebuilt car engines, grown and harvested crops, raised and butchered livestock, hunted and fished from northern border to southern, and have a sloppy command of three languages besides my native one. Enough to survive as my words here attest to. You callin' me a liar? You spanking apologists are congenital liars, so practiced and so immersed that you can't even tell it yourselves. Sad cases really. Bullies. Plain and simple. Moral bankrupts. And sanctimonious about it too. In fact that was the thing that made me at 19 determine I'd never hit a child for any reason. I was brought up not to be a bully. It also turned me into an athiest, among other fine pieces of intellectualy empty rhetoric from fundies. Kane |
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U.N. rules Canada should ban spanking
"Kane" wrote in message om... "Julie Pascal" wrote in message On 18 Oct 2003, Kane wrote: (...) From 19 on I hardly had a week go by when it wasn't a consideration. My 4 year military experience was especially telling. The weirdest troops I knew, some very dangerous or at least perverse in the telling, were spanked folks. (...) Somehow, it *never* came up. Don't tell me. You were a cook. No. But I have far more respect for support troops than you obviously do. As a former military person, verteran, etc. I find your attitude offensive. But then, I was stationed in a place where people were being shot and killed. I suppose that makes a difference in attitude concerning respect for people who wear the uniform. Even the cook. Young men responding to a question "where you spanked as a child" I would expect to be answer with bravado and exaggerated bragging...because that's what young men in the military *do*. Not in the setting I asked such questions. (...) Where I asked the questions misleading me could result in a courts martial or at least an Article 15. kapeesh? The USAF didn't just let anyone do the job I was interviewing them to send them off to school to learn. Really. The only truely *selective* enlisted jobs I know of in the Air Force are special ops. Other jobs do take psych evaluations. Many other jobs take security clearances and back ground investigations. Wow... you know. I never got *asked* if I was spanked either. Not in psych evaluations or in security background investigations. And I did have to have both. Amazing! And they gave me an SBI clearance. I am *stunned*. Ever been in a strategic missile silo? I've been in a demo only. My FIL worked in silos for years and years. Are you trying to impress someone? Ever wondered about the stability of those that send those merry giants on their way? Okay... so you were doing psych evaluations for ROTC and Academy Cadets. Wow!! You never cease to amaze me, Kane. Or was it the bootstrap program or OTS that you interviewed for? Want some spanked kiddies to grow up and get into that line of work? I'm sure they do. And they work in Cheyenne Mountain. And they fly aircraft with nuclear payloads. And they work OED. And they fly medical evac. Some of them parachute in behind enemy lines and use laser targeting to direct air strikes. Shall we talk about Nuclear Submarines? I don't know anything about Nuclear Submarines. We asked the question and others to determine the fitness just for the training...let alone for the work. Much more psych evals were being done during and after training...and periodically on duty. And spanked boys and girls were rejected. Routinely. They do NOT hold up well under the kind of stress involved in a missile silo. Guess why. You have *so* blown your credibility. Ooops... I guess that assumes you had some. Girls? In missile silos? Surely only in empty silos that need a new coat of paint or wiring and then you get to go home and the *stress* isn't any more than any other maintenance job. Locked in a silo for a week at a time is *not* girls. You are such a liar. Silos have either 2 or 4 person crews. Officers. Males. Which is just no fair at all, but that's the way it is. The guys with the keys. I'm told it's a very good opportunity to get advanced degrees through correspondence. --Julie |
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Ray attempts Biblical justification: was U.N. rules Canadashould ban spanking
Dennis Hancock wrote: Byron, how is the burdon of proof upon him? Spanking has been used for centuries without the adverse effects psychologists claim it has upon children. I would think that those who advocate 'reasoning' with a very young child to be able to show some evidence or scientific proof that one CAN reason without endangering that child's life. Actually, Dennis, the proof is not upon you. What is your evidence that spanking has been used for centuries with the adverse effects psychologists claim it has upon children? Empirical evidence please, Dennis -- not your opinion. You state this as fact, base your claim with data supporting your factual statement. There are a multitude of parenting strategies for very young children that do not rely on reasoning or spanking. The first is to understand where this little child is developmentally and have appropriate expectations. Then try avoiding the issue if the expectation is developmentally inappropriate. Use redirection, substitution, extinction, meeting child's immediate needs, and a multitude of other parenting strategies. If you want more information, please ask. I've posted this many times on alt.parenting.spanking. Parenting is about teaching. Parenting is about helping children develop internal control and moral reasoning -- it's not about hitting for compliance. And a multitude of studies spanning several decades exist showing that spanking is linked to long and short term risk factors and no studies that show spanking to be preferrable to alternative forms of discipline that do not involve hitting, hurting, shaming, or demeaning a child. Of course, if you have studies that support your position, I'd love to read them. Please post your sources. LaVonne |
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Ray attempts Biblical justification: was U.N. rules Canadashould ban spanking
Dennis Hancock wrote: Byron, and the increase in crime has skyrocketed in recent years, especially since we've been bombarded with psychobabble about how bad it is to spank a child. Many are growing up as spoiled brats, without any form of discipline in their lives and grow to adulthood and add to the problem. Do you have evidence that links lack of spanking to an increase in crime. If you do, please post your sources. I've read multiple studies that have identified correlations between corporal punishement and juvenile crime. Perhaps you have different sources that I have. I'm anxious to see your references and read the studies that led you to the conclusion that lack of spanking is correlated with an increase in crime. Thanks, Dennis. I'll look forward to seeing your references. LaVonne |
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